I’m a fan of Allan Lichtman’s election prediction model, Keys to the White House. The logic behind the system, which was wrong just once since its inception in 1984 (when electoral college did not match the closest popular vote in history), is that the national electorate is pragmatic and will give power to (or remove) a party (not a candidate) based on performance across a few key metrics.
The “keys” are 13 true/false statements. If six are false, the incumbent party loses. In 2024, six false keys means Biden will lose to whoever the GOP nominee is. Doesn’t matter who.
See the keys below. Some are subjective, some straightforward. Asterisk (*) denotes this key could change by November. My comments where applicable.
Midterm gains: FALSE
After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
While this key is technically false because Republicans gained nine House seats in 2022, I read their historically weak performance as a bad omen. Especially after the first two years of a new president’s administration, the opposition party usually reaps big gains.
There are few exceptions. In 2002, when George W. Bush’s response to 9/11 attacks enjoyed widespread approval, Republicans gained eight seats. In 1990, George H.W. Bush’s Republicans lost only eight seats amid the popular Gulf War. He went on to lose reelection amid a historically strong third-party candidate in Ross Perot.
But Democratic presidents usually suffer greater losses in midterms. For Republicans to pick up only nine seats was their party’s worst midterm performance since 1962, which took place just after John F. Kennedy backed Russia down in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Before that, you have to go back to FDR’s Democrats gaining nine seats after taking power from Herbert Hoover’s Republicans during the Great Depression.
Absent historic circumstances, midterms are the opposition party’s high-water mark. It only goes down from there. You could make the argument that historic circumstances apply here, and Republicans are on the wrong side of history.
No primary contest: TRUE
There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbent seeking re-election: TRUE
The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
No third party: TRUE
There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Lichtman defines this key as a candidate who can garner 5% of the national vote. In 2016, Gary Johnson and Jill Stein combined for just over 5%. In 1992, Ross Perot won 19% of the vote (and 8.4% in 1996).
I don’t see either scenario happening if Trump is on the ballot. Third parties do well when it’s common to hear people complain that both parties are too similar. We have the opposite in political polarization.
Strong short-term economy: TRUE*
The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
While the economy could enter recession next year, it’s unlikely given the economic initiatives enacted when Democrats controlled the House will begin to be executed during 2024. With trillions of dollars in industrial policy will start driving infrastructure, semiconductor and green-energy projects, only a Great Recession-scale event could turn GDP growth negative for two consecutive quarters. A standard business cycle downturn won’t do it. But
Strong long-term economy: TRUE
Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Economic growth under Biden has averaged 3.1%, compared to 2.2% during the previous eight years (2.21% during Trump years, 2.19% during Obama’s second term). Only a severe crisis would pull Biden’s 3.1% below 2.2%. If you want to geek out on the data, here’s quarterly GDP growth per term in a spreadsheet. Play with the numbers to see how bad the next year has to be for this key to turn false.
Major policy change: TRUE
The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
No social unrest: TRUE*
There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
This is a unique election in that the Republican candidate could be a previous president, one whose government saw substantial social unrest almost throughout the term. While Trump would not technically be the incumbent and wouldn’t affect this key, having him in the news cycle will remind people what 2020 was like. It was the only year in my lifetime that reminded me of what I’ve read about the late 1960s and early 1970s, when civil unrest and political violence unsettled the whole nation, no matter who you were. And in Trump, unlike LBJ or Nixon, you had a president who aggravated that conflict, who didn’t even try to lower the temperature.
No scandal: TRUE*
The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
This key is about the incumbent, but again, you could have a pseudo-incumbent challenger if Donald Trump is the nominee. There has not been a president more tainted by scandal in history. You’d have a twice-impeached former president who left in disgrace. He will be under indictment, out on bail and/or on trial for dozens of felonies. We could see officials from his own administration endorse Biden.
No foreign/military failure: TRUE*
The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
The Afghanistan withdrawal was ugly, but to turn this key false it must be a major failure and global embarrassment. Think the Vietnam War, the Iran hostage crisis or the Iraq War (in 2008, but not 2004).
Major foreign/military success: FALSE*
The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
It’s unlikely, but possible that Vladimir Putin’s regime could fall. If that happens, Biden will get credit for rallying Europe to help Ukraine against Russia’s invasion.
Charismatic incumbent: FALSE
The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Uncharismatic challenger: TRUE
The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Neither Trump nor any of the GOP primary challengers would meet Lichtman’s definition of a charismatic politician: someone who has broad appeal beyond the traditional base. Trump is like Hillary Clinton in having narrow appeal, albeit deep, with high unfavorable ratings. In fact, Trump is uniquely disliked by everybody outside his base. His possible reelection is a greater motivator for Democratic voters than abortion.
FALSE KEYS = 3
Republicans need six false keys to win. They have three, and one was a limp across the finish line, the GOP’s worst midterm performance as opposition in a century. Absent a financial crisis, major scandal or foreign-policy failure (they need two of three, in fact), Joe Biden will likely win reelection in 2024.
Colin’s Keys
The Trump Factor
Much of the nuance I’ve added assumes Trump will be the Republican nominee. In the wake of last year’s midterms, I likened Trump in a GOP primary to Mike Tyson in his prime. Trump’s endorsements were trounced while Ron DeSantis won reelection by 19 points. At the time of publish, there was an aura of inevitability, a feeling that Trump was finished. DeSantis was in and Trump was out. It may seem so obvious now that DeSantis is a weirdo, and unviable, but it wasn’t then. I was going against the grain when I wrote:
The Republican base cannot be overestimated. They are capable of nominating this guy (Trump) again. I daresay he’s the favorite.
I’ll take a victory lap on that, given polling, while pointing out it’s not over. This could still change.
In 2020, the Democrats’ only serious candidate who would have lost to Trump started winning primaries. The moderate Democrats, any one of whom would have beaten Trump, coalesced behind their strongest candidate to prevent nominating Bernie Sanders.
The Republicans could do something similar. In fact, some Republicans are trying. There won’t be many details made public (yet), but the business-class capitalists who have a stronger grip on reality are huddling right now to prevent a Trump candidacy. Nikki Haley seems to be the one they rally around. They don’t have much time left, but it could happen.
Do Republicans have the social intelligence, the marketing competence and political prudence to do what Democrats did to win? Or do too many live in their alternative reality, where they don’t need any course correction to beat senile Joe Biden’s crime family hiding in the basement?
I don’t think it matters. A strong candidate does not materially change the keys. The only scenario I see the Republicans winning is if Joe Biden dies and Republicans nominate Nikki Haley. In other words, Biden beats everybody and so does Kamala, except Kamala vs. Haley is a tossup.
Icing on the cake: I believe even Bernie would beat Trump in 2024 (post-January 6, indictments, etc.).
Should Inflation be a Key?
GDP growth is the only economic indicator in the keys. According to Lichtman, nothing else matters (poverty, unemployment, stock prices, deficits, etc.). But inflation feels like an indicator that could be salient enough for voters to demand change. Lichtman developed the keys by looking at all presidential elections throughout history. But we only have inflation data since 1960.
It’s hard to ignore that in two of the three times inflation was as high as it is now, the White House changed hands. Also in 1976 and 1980, key drivers were Watergate and the Iran hostage crisis respectively.
Inflation peaked in the first quarter of 2022 at a level closer to 1972 (when Nixon won reelection) than when incumbents lost in 1976 and 1980. And inflation seems to be going down. Still nobody under the age of 60 experienced inflation this high as an adult. Is inflation a hidden key, overlooked because of a lack of data?
The Bill is Due, Redux
The Republican party is undergoing a historic shitshow in its ranks. They’re struggling to hold together even a shrinking coalition. The fissures are coming into relief, the realignment from business-class capitalists to an “economically liberal but socially conservative” populism, exacerbated by the toxic leadership of Donald Trump.
Ideology aside, Trump’s example of graft and self-dealing has been followed across the country. In Texas, Republicans tried to impeach their own attorney general for corruption too brazen to ignore, but failed when Trump came to his defense. Election denialism is driving party conflict particularly in the states they need to win in 2024. In most cases the business class is walking away (with their money) from the rising populists. Trump’s tactics from reality television and professional wrestling aggravate it all.
I don’t see how a party in chaos, with a vacuum of principled leadership, can come together to win an election without a perfect storm of financial crisis, political scandal and social unrest coming down on Biden’s last year. Doesn’t matter who the candidate is. The bill is due for banana republicans. They haven’t yet reckoned with reality.
That’s all for this year. No election coverage until well into 2024.