Trump has blinked, for now, on levying tariffs on Canada and Mexico. I recently sent out an email (sign up here) about how I lost sleep over the weekend. Not because I’m worried about a trade war, but because of how compelling the episode was. I read all about it.
Americans wanted a businessman as president, and he is someone “pragmatic” and “transactional” who will back down on something that proves unpopular. I was never too concerned about a trade war not because my business would be safe, but because I know that he’ll change course if it ever hits the fan.
Part of why I decided not to worry is that we have seen that Trump does not always fight. He backs down. He blinks. Call them “tactical retreats” if you like. He does it all the time. He is not a holy warrior hellbent on jihad.
The first big blink came during the child separation saga. This was a policy he believed in. While politically incorrect and immoral, creating horrifying consequences is probably the only way to reduce immigration. Separating children from their families was more actionable than other ideas he had, like shooting them in the leg or stocking a moat with alligators.
They implemented the policy and it was working, but the outcry was deafening. Nothing else could break through, and you know he tried. Once he saw child separations were untenable, he backed down.
Trump is a political animal with a keen sense of where the public is on an issue. He knows exactly what he can get away with and he’ll go as far as he can, far enough and still squeeze out a 50-50 vote. If he gets too far away from that, he’ll cut his losses.
After Jan. 6, he tucked tail and laid low for months, an eternity for the attention span of a reality-TV star and social-media native. When his preferred nominee for attorney general proved untenable, he backed down. The act of Congress came under the next administration, but the TikTok ban was his brainchild.
It’s hard to argue against anything that wins 352 votes in the House and 79 in the Senate — informed votes from people privy to info we don’t have. The table was set, but when it was time to … just do nothing, just let it take effect … Trump blinked again. He gave the Chinese-owned social media even more runway than the nine months they had to appease national security concerns.
That last episode may be Trump backing down to the younger generation, or maybe his meeting with a generous donor and TikTok investor in the heat of the 2024 election. Another truism about Trump is that he can be bought. Not ideal, but another reason to chill. He’s not a jihadist ready to die for the cause. That’s nothing to be ashamed of. It is what it is.
You could see this in a good or bad light regardless of your politics. If you like Trump (and reading me?), tactical retreats are sometimes necessary to move forward. Someone who never backs down doesn’t get far.
If you’re like me and aren’t crazy about his politics, knowing he is rational will allow you to keep your attention from being at the mercy of every spectacle or indignity. That’s why I decided to disconnect and not get so sucked in like I did in his first term: because he will back down before it goes off the rails.
I still believe Donald Trump represents American fascism at the heights of unprecedented power, and his movement is ugly and dangerous and will end badly. But I might be wrong. And until we know, it is outside my control. The people voted for it. Small-d democrats must respect that.